Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
