Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
